Friday, August 7, 2009

UNEMPLOYMENT DEPRESSION

We Lost a Quarter of a Million Jobs In July, Its Getting Worse, So Why Do We Need Even Educated Illegal Aliens?

Then unemployment went down 0.1%....how's that....well it acually may of only gone down 0.01%, because it was 9.46% [9.5% rounded off].

Also, the 9.4% anomaly could be moot point number manipulation during the June improvement [?] as follows:

"....One of the reasons the unemployment rate did not rise more than it did in June was due to a shrinkage of the labor force of 155,000 workers, partially offsetting the labor force gain in May of 350,000 workers...."

The rest of the URL:

http://www.epi.org/publications/entry/jobs_picture_20090702/

I think when the 9-10% low-ball unemployment calculation hits the top 5% of household incomes very soon, the MSM and Dem/Reps won't be calling a quarter of million monthly job losses a reason to rejoice and break out the champaign. This MSM nonsense won't have a willing mouthpiece anymore.

Population Growth and Chronic Unemployment Increases

The mixture of growth and job loss did not occur during GD I, but we have this plague today, a good article in part:

“…Furthermore, the loss of 6.5 million jobs over the 18 months of this recession dramatically understates the hole in the current labor market. To keep up with population growth, the economy needs to add around 127,000 jobs every month, so the labor market needed to grow 2.3 million jobs over this period. All told, the labor market is currently 8.8 million jobs below where it would need to be to maintain pre-recession employment levels. If there is any good news in this report, it is that despite the increase in job loss from May, the pace of losses still appears to be slowing from the enormous declines of earlier this year. In the first quarter of 2009, the economy shed 691,000 jobs per month, on average, but in the second quarter the losses averaged 436,000 jobs per month.

The continued losses, however, mean unemployment is still rising. This recession has set a new unemployment benchmark as unemployment has increased by 4.6 percentage points, higher than the rise of unemployment in the 1980s recession. Unemployment rose from 9.4% in May to 9.5% in June as 218,000 people were added to the jobless rolls. One of the reasons the unemployment rate did not rise more than it did in June was due to a shrinkage of the labor force of 155,000 workers, partially offsetting the labor force gain in May of 350,000 workers. There are now 14.7 million unemployed workers in this country, up 7.2 million from the start of the recession. The picture changes dramatically, though, when considering the broader measure of underemployment. If the ranks of the “marginally attached” (jobless workers who want a job but are not actively seeking work and so are not counted as officially unemployed) and “involuntary part-time workers” (those who want full-time jobs but can’t get the hours) are added to the mix, the figure rises to 25.9 million, which means nearly one in six U.S. workers (16.5%) is either un- or underemployed….”

The rest of the GD II URL:

http://www.epi.org/publications/entry/jobs_picture_20090702/

This is GD II using historical GD I unemployment as the marker for today. To me, chronic unemployment getting worse and worse is the definition of a depression.

The GD I stocks did fall 50% and then rebounded 6 months later by 50% [25% of the old high]; very close to what GD II did today. in 2009.

See the chart for GD I, to possibly predict GD II:

http://creditwritedowns.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/dow-1928-1932.png

Even Obama Agrees With Me On Unemployment

Article in part:

"...The new Labor Department numbers show that employers cut 247,000 jobs in July, another job loss but also the smallest reduction of any month this year. The unemployment rate dropped marginally from 9.5 percent to 9.4 percent, although one of the reasons for that change is that hundreds of thousands of people left the labor force...."

The rest of the URL:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_economy_obama

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